Analyse: CS ETF (IE) on MSCI Japan (JPY)

Auch nach Jahrzehnten der Rezession macht die japanische Wirtschaft knapp 10% des globalen BIPs aus. Dieser ETF gibt einen breiten Zugang zum japanischen Aktienmarkt. 

Lee Davidson 14.12.2012

Rolle im Portfolio

The CS ETF on MSCI Japan TRN Index ETF provides broad exposure to Japanese equity markets. Japan represents one of the largest, most developed, and richest economies in the world. To put it in perspective, Japan accounts for nearly 9% of global GDP. Roughly half of all Japanese international trade is conducted with its Pacific neighbors indicating its prominence as both regional supplier and end-consumer. Despite its regional economic importance, Japan has suffered stagnant economic growth in recent years. Looking ahead, Japan faces strong headwinds in the short-term stemming from its massive deficit and trade disruptions with China due to territorial disputes. In the long-term, however, the outlook is slightly more positive as Japan is well-positioned to capitalise from burgeoning emerging market growth.

At the time of this writing, the fund's reference index has maintained moderate levels of correlation to the MSCI World (72%) and the STOXX Europe 600 (66%) over the past ten years. Moderate correlation levels signal that this ETF offers potential diversification benefits within an existing equity allocation. Be warned, however, correlation levels have risen in recent years and historical diversification benefits may not be as significant as they once were.

Given its narrow country focus, however, this ETF is best utilised as a tactical or satellite holding within an already well-diversified portfolio. However, before investing in this fund, we suggest investors check their portfolio’s for existing exposure to Japan. Japan, as one of the largest economies in the world, accounts for significant weightings in global equity funds and Asia-focused funds in particular. Japanese equities can comprise 15% to 25% of a typical global equity portfolio, and Japan can comprise about half of a typical Asian equity portfolio (using the MSCI World, MSCI EAFE, and MSCI AC Asia indices as benchmarks).

Fundamentale Analyse

Despite having applied massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus, Japan continues to trudge along a difficult road towards economic well-being. Over the past two decades, Japan's gross public debt has skyrocketed to more than 200% of total GDP. With 20% of the population over the age of 65, Japan's social security spending has been a significant contributor to this deficit, but persistent weak economic growth has also served to reduce tax revenues as a percentage of GDP to levels last seen in the mid-1980s. To close the gap, Japan's parliament has passed a significant hike to the consumption tax, currently the lowest amongst OECD countries at 5%. The new tax regime will increase the consumption tax to 8% in 2014 and 10% in 2015. However, in order to pass the bill, Japan's Prime Minister Noda had to promise to hold early elections on December 16, 2012. At the time of this writing, Shinzo Abe, head of the opposition Liberal Democratic party, is considered the frontrunner to become Japan's next Prime Minister by running on a platform of unlimited monetary stimulus and a stronger resolve towards China regarding the disputed Senkaku islands.

Energy prices remain a chief concern for Japan. Currently, Japan's energy costs are 40% higher than the US and nearly 2.5x times higher than South Korea due to a dearth of domestic energy sources. The post-tsunami nuclear disaster contributed to the escalating domestic energy prices. Furthermore, as international pressure mounts on Iran, Japan has announced its intention to limit its dependence on Iranian oil–which currently accounts for 10% of its total oil consumption. In April, Japan slashed its Iranian oil imports by nearly 80% to comply with Western sanctions and most reports indicate that a complete halt will be enforced. Coupled with the EU's decision to completely embargo Iranian oil, the competition to secure supplies from alternative oil suppliers, like Saudi Arabia, will be intensified.

Arguably, the most significant issue affecting Japanese corporations for the past few years is the appreciation of the yen. Over the past five years, the Japanese yen has appreciated 7.6% on an annualised basis against the US dollar. For Japan's large-cap exporters, the yen’s rise has been a nightmare, weighing on their ability to remain competitive abroad. In an attempt to address this problem, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained an ultra-easy monetary policy stance with its benchmark overnight target rate set to 0.1%. In October, the BOJ reiterated its intent to buy longer-term government bonds, increasing its asset-purchase programme by 11 trn yen. The BOJ has enacted three such monetary easing schemes in the past two months stating that its goal is to see inflation reach 1%. Shinzo Abe, however, is campaigning on setting the inflation target closer to 2-3%.

Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan maintained its economic forecasts, and it expects the Japanese economy to resume a moderate recovery, forecasting 2.2% growth through the fiscal year ending March 2013. Growth is expected to come from a rise in exports and a pick-up in reconstruction-related demand. In 2013, the pace of growth may slow as reconstruction demand wanes, but should still exhibit positive momentum.

Indexkonstruktion

The CS ETF (IE) on MSCI Japan tracks the free-float market capitalisation weighted MCSI Japan index, which intends to represent 85% of the publicly available total market capitalisation of the Japanese equity market. The index is composed of Japanese securities across the four major Japanese exchanges: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Osaka Stock Exchange, JASDAQ, and Nagoya Stock Exchange. At the time of this writing, the index has 315 constituents. Top components are Toyota (5.4%), Mitsubishi Tokyo (3%), Honda (2.5%), and Sumitomo (2%). Due to the characteristics of index constituents, the index is relatively sector and style neutral with the largest sectors being industrials (20.6%), consumer discretionary (19.3%), financials (19%), and information technology (11.3%).

Fondskonstruktion

The CS ETF (IE) on MSCI Japan uses physical replication to track its reference index. The fund intends to invest in all the constituents of the MSCI Japan index and thereby provides exposure to the 317 largest companies from the four major Japanese exchanges. Credit Suisse may engage in securities lending to generate additional revenues. However, they have not yet chosen to do so for this fund. If securities lending is undertaken, Credit Suisse requires the counterparty to hold a minimum credit rating of A2 (S&P) at the time of the relevant transaction is entered into. The fund may hold up to 20% of its NAV in securities from a single issuer in order to achieve his objectives. Under exceptional market conditions, the fund manager may invest up to 35% of the fund’s net assets in securities from a single issuer. Moreover, the fund may invest in futures, swaps, liquidity instruments, other transferable securities and open-ended collective investments to track the reference index. The fund is available in two distinct currency denominations: Euros and Japanese Yen. Naturally, the index is most closely associated with Japanese Yen.

Gebühren

The CS ETF (IE) on MSCI Japan charges a total expense ratio (TER) equal to 0.48%, which is comparable to other ETFs tracking Japanese equity indices.

Alternativen

There is no shortage of ETFs available offering exposure to large cap Japanese equities. The primary differentiating factor amongst them will be liquidity and replication methods as most of the ETFs available track the MSCI Japan index. For those preferring physical replication funds, iShares has the most popular offering tracking the MSCI Japan index measured by its assets under management (AUM). iShares charges a TER equal to 0.59% for the ETF. Unlike Credit Suisse, iShares engages in securities lending within the fund which poses some exposure to counterparty risk but has the potential to improve tracking performance.

The db x-trackers MSCI Japan TRN is the most popular synthetic replication ETF following large cap Japanese equities with AUM equal to EUR 219 mil. To benefit from improved tracking, investors take on some level of counterparty risk inherent in the synthetic replication structure. This fund levies a TER of 0.50%.

Those looking for exposure to small cap Japanese equities may consider CS ETF (IE) on MSCI Japan Small Cap or iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap. Expense ratios for these funds are 0.58% and 0.59%, respectively. Both these funds are very thinly traded.

 

Über den Autor

Lee Davidson  is an ETF analyst with Morningstar Europe.