iShares FTSE BRIC 50 (IE) (USD)

Energie, Finanzen, China: Hohe Konzentrationsrisiken in dem Aktien-ETF auf die größten Schwellenländer.

Alastair Kellett 20.04.2012
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Rolle im Portfolio

The fund provides exposure to many of the largest companies within the emerging countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (collectively, “BRIC”). These countries have seen their importance on the global stage rise dramatically in recent years. The Chinese economy now ranks third in the world, behind only Europe and the United States. Whereas this type of exposure would once have been considered only as a speculative tactical tool, it is increasingly becoming a core component of a globally balanced portfolio. That said, this can be an extremely volatile area of the market. This fund’s annual standard deviation since inception in 2007 has been just shy of 34%. It correlation to the local currency returns of the S&P 500 and the MSCI Europe Index has been 78% in each case, over the same time period. The fund pays out dividends from the underlying stocks on a semi-annual basis, currently at an annual yield level of 2.29%. So it may suit an investor seeking moderate levels of income, although the tax implications of such distributions for each investor would have to be taken into consideration.

Fundamentale Analyse

For much of the last 10 years, the BRIC acronym has been strongly associated with the exciting growth potential of the developing world. China will have particular impact on the group’s fortunes, as its largest economy and the largest weight in the index. China, having gone through a period of remarkable growth, now faces the prospect of slowing down, and much will depend on whether its economy can achieve a “soft landing.” GDP growth, while still robust, fell to an annualised rate of 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011, and the Chinese government recently targeted a 7.5% figure for 2012. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was 4.5% in January, higher than the previous two months but down from October’s 5.5% reading. The real estate market, long a major driver of growth, is beginning to show signs of stress. Against this backdrop, the People’s Bank of China is walking a monetary policy tightrope, trying to find a balance between growth and inflation. After a couple of years of policy tightening, including rules designed to curb home-buying, China has recently swung in the other direction, reducing banks’ reserve requirements in an attempt to get things moving again. One of the major factors contributing to China’s slowdown is that its economy is largely built on exports, and with many parts of the developed world spiralling back into recession, the demand for those exports has begun to dry up. As the beleaguered developed-world consumer continues to pare back, China will have to rely more and more on domestic demand from its own burgeoning middle class. For both Brazil and Russia, a key driver of growth is energy. The countries’ wealth of natural resources has made them substantial beneficiaries of the past decade’s trend towards higher commodity prices. A big part of that trend has been the rapid growth of China, with its seemingly insatiable appetite for raw materials, as well as Malthusian concerns about the world running out of non-renewable resources. The concern right now is that with China slowing down, the demand for raw materials could fall considerably. Brazil’s growth has also slowed considerably in recent periods. For the fourth quarter of 2011 its growth rate was a paltry 1.4%, less than that of the United States. Oil prices have generally been increasing of late as tensions around Iran grow. But Saudi Arabia recently issued a commitment to increase its production in order to remove some of the upward pressure on the commodity. Another concern in Russia is the increasingly shaky political situation in Russia. Vladimir Putin was recently elected president, having effectively circumvented term limits on his power through a switcheroo with Dmitry Medvedev. But there is a growing perception that the election results were rigged, and public displays of disapproval of Putin seem to have increased meaningfully. India’s GDP growth rate clocked in at 6.1% annualised in the fourth quarter of 2011; robust by global standards but less than the country was used to in the years preceding the global financial crisis. India’s economy has remained largely closed, which has hampered development. Recent plans to allow foreign supermarkets into the country were scrapped in the face of protest.

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Über den Autor

Alastair Kellett  Al Kellett is an ETF analyst with Morningstar Europe.

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